Quills Picks Winners – Saturday 5/30 – Churchill Down Races 8 & 9
It is Stephen Foster Preview Day at Churchill Downs and the home of the Kentucky Derby has six stakes races on tap today, and we will take a look at the final four races on the card.
Specifically here, we will look at races eight and nine on the eleven-race card. Race 8 is the Grade 3 Aristides Stakes which is a six furlong sprint. Then we head to the turf for the Regret Stakes in race 9, as three-year-old fillies will go a mile and an eighth on the turf course.
Let’s take a look at these two races on this Saturday afternoon card.
Churchill Downs Race 8 – Aristides Stakes
A field of seven is entered in the Aristides Stakes in this graded sprint stakes race. Favored in this race is the 3 Roll On Big Joe (9/5 morning line). He finished second in the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap, finishing second to Mad House. Big Joe likes to be close to the lead if not on the lead, but he could not get by the winner from the moment the gates opened. Look for a similar trip today.
The 1 Mad House (7/2 ML) gunned for the lead and won the Count Fleet last time out at Oaklawn. He draws the rail here and only knows one way to run and that is on the lead. This field will have to catch this speedster again today.
The 2 Cornucopian (5/2 ML) did not fire in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes on Derby Day, finishing fifth. He has turned more into a stalker since the new year and when he started sprinting. With all the speed in this race, his Baffert trainee looks to be horse that could be closing late in this race.
The 5 Tejano Twist (12/1 ML) closed from last to finish third in the Lake Hamilton Stakes at Oaklawn at the beginning of the month. He makes his 50th career start this afternoon and is the most consistent closer in the group here.
Joe’s Pick
I will say from seeing this house at Parx last September that Mad House is very fast and has the heart to match his speed. If he gets an unpressured run down the backstretch, these horses are probably running for second, but I think there is enough speed in this race to bring this horse back to the field.
I also think Roll On Big Joe will be up there and will be stalking his Count Fleet nemesis again today. But I think he gets caught up int eh duel as well. I think Cornucopian has found his niche with sprinting and will be flying late to get the win.
I’m calling this race 2-3-1-5 and my play is $20 to win on the 2.
Churchill Downs Race 9 – Regret Stakes (Grade 3)
A field of nine three-year-old fillies are entered for this mile and an eighth stakes race. Favored is the 9 Tam Tam (5/2 ML). She was on the lead, lost the lead and fought back, only to lose by a head in the Grade 2 Edgewood Stakes. She has stalked the pace since she ended up on the turf in February but got the lead and almost stole the race. There is no real speed in this race, so she may be on the lead again today.
The 1 Indigo Woods (4/1 ML) closed from the back of the pack in the Edgewood, improving position late. She returns here today looking to bounce back from her sixth place finish and has the ability to close here.
The 8 Storm’s Lake (3/1 ML) closed from dead last in the Edgewood and finished fifth but was only a length and a half behind the winner. She showed that closing kick in the Grade 2 Appalachian Stakes at Keeneland in April, winning the race. Look for that kick again today.
The 7 Call On Me (10/1 ML) was scratched at Penn National last night to run in this race today. She faces stakes company for the first time after behind outkicked late in an optional claiming race here three weeks ago. Expect a stalking trip from here today.
Joe’s Pick
Tam Tam should be on the lead here because it does not look like many of these fillies will want the lead. She could be dangerous, but I think she gets caught by Storm’s Wake late in the stretch to win.
I’m calling this race 9-8-1-7 and my play is $20 to win on the 9. Best of luck and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle!
