Quills Picks Winners – Saturday 5/30 – Churchill Down Races 10 & 11
We continue with the races at Churchill Downs, and we are looking at the final two races on the card. First we will look at the Grade 3 Blame Stakes as field of eight will go a mile and an eighth. Then we are on the grass for the finale as a field of 11 will go a mile and an eighth in the Grade 3 Arlington Stakes.
Churchill Downs Race 10 – Blame Stakes (Grade 3)
Favored in this stakes race is the 8 Vibe (9/5 morning line). He takes on stakes company for the first time after winning an optional claiming race on Derby Day. He goes two turns for the first time after racing in three consecutive one-turn, one-mile races. This colt faces stakes company for the first time as well as going two turns, but this colt may be getting good at the right time. Look for him to be stalking today.
The 3 Hit Show (5/2 ML) returns home after a failed attempt to defend his Dubai World Cup title at the end of March. He returns here looking to get back on track here today after a break after going to the Middle East. Look for him to be a little bit further behind the favorite early on looking to make a move late.
The 1 Rattle N Roll (4/1 ML) shortens up after returning to North America after a trip to Saudi Arabia for the Saudi Cup. He has shown a pattern of being ready for the second time after a trip to the Middle East. He has a strong closing kick that should help him immensely today.
The 2 Hall of Fame (6/1 ML) had a tough ask last time out racing for the first time in over nine months in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes. Not only was he sprinting for the first time in almost three years, he ended up facing a Japanese monster in that race. The added distance helps this horse and the inside post figures that he will not be seven-wide turning for home.
Joe’s Pick
The races in the Middle East can really mess with a horse. Sometimes horses have to get a race back home in North America before they are really back on track. Rattle N Roll came back from Saudi Arabia after running poorly in the Saudi Cup and ran a “meh” race in his return. He should be fine today and look for him to unleash his closing kick to get by Vibe late for the win.
I’m calling this race 1-8-2-3 and my play is $20 to win on the 1.
Churchill Downs Race 11 – Arlington Stakes (Grade 3)
Favored in the finale here at Churchill Downs is the 3 Lagynos (5/2 ML). He won three races in a row after winning the Opening Verse here during Derby week. He won graded stakes at the Fair Grounds in February and March sitting a couple lengths off the pace and taking over. Look for him to do that again this afternoon.
The 9 Quatrocentro (7/2 ML) is the speed in this race and will try to take the field gate to wire here this afternoon. He tried to do just that in the Opening Verse and was caught late in that race. He only knows one way to run and will have to fend off the closers late in this race.
The 1 West Hollywood (10/1 ML) was wide but was closing late in the Opening Verse. He may have finished fifth but he was moving forward at the end of the race. He will be sitting back towards the back end of the field and looking to close late.
The 10 Brilliant Berti (9/2 ML) was not a factor in the Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland last month and stretches out after that race. He is very versatile and is 5 for 6 at Churchill Downs in his career. He is a horse for course and will try to improve off of his impressive record.
Joe’s Pick
We know Quatrocentro will gun for the lead here, but I think he will get caught. I can’t ignore Lagynos’ winning streak, but I also cannot ignore Brilliant Berti’s success here at Churchill Downs. I will take Berti to get the nose down to win here today.
I’m calling this race 10-3-9-1 and my play is $20 to win on the 10. Best of luck and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle!
