Quills Picks Winners – Saturday 8/8 – Saratoga Races 11 & 12

We continue on with the Grade 1 stakes action at Saratoga, and we have two more races on the docket. First we will be on the grass for the Saratoga Derby, where three-year-olds will travel a mile and three-sixteenths on the Mellon (or outer) turf course.

Then we close out our portion of the day with a star studded Whitney Stakes field. Eight horses are entered, including multiple Grade 1 winners Magnitude and White Abarrio, champion three-year-old filly Nitrogen, last year’s Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner Sovereignty, and last year’s Pennsylvania Derby winner Baeza.

The latter will be a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Let’s take a look at these two races.

Saratoga Race 11 – Saratoga Derby (Grade 1)

Ten horses are entered in the Saratoga Derby. The 9 Bottas will be scratched. He won the Hall of Fame Stakes yesterday. Favored is the 3 Remember Mamba (3/1 morning line). He lost by a neck overall in a blanked finish in the Belmont Derby last month here at Saratoga. He progressed nicely in his five races in his young career and shown he can close with the best of them. Look for him to be closing late per usual again today.

The 4 Title Role (9/2 ML) won that blanket finish in the Belmont Derby last month. He was stalking behind the leaders last time out and will look to do the same today. But he may assume the lead without the lack of an obvious front running horse here today.

The 10 West End Kid (7/2 ML) lost by a nose in the Belmont Derby. He has run well in his last four races and may be assuming the lead from the outside post.

The 5 Pacific Avenue (5/1 ML) finished off the board in the Belmont Derby but did finish well in that mad dash to the finish. Trainer Charlie Appleby doesn’t send horses to Saratoga just to run. He send them to win and he is due to do so here today.

Joe’s Saratoga Derby Pick

Somehow Charlie Appleby is 0 for 4 this year in North America and 0 for 2 so far during this meet here at Saratoga. His horse may be the horse to sprint home the fastest in a race that appears to be devoid of speed. I’ll take Pacific Avenue here.

I’m calling this race 5-4-3-10 and my play is $20 to win on the 5.

Saratoga Race 12 – Whitney Stakes (Grade 1)

And then we have the race that we have anticipated for over a month now. A star studded field of eight horses are entered in this race today. They will go a mile and an eighth here this afternoon.

Favored in the Whitney is the 1 Magnitude (9/5 ML). He broke through the gate before the Stephen Foster but reloaded and still went gate to wire for the Grade 1 win. He wants to be on the lead and should be able to take advantage of the rail position he has in this race.

The 6 Sovereignty (3/1 ML) returns home after finishing third to Magnitude in the Stephen Foster. The only question we have about him today is the issue that he is not the same horse as last summer when he went three for three here at Saratoga, or he just did not have his best stuff at Churchill last time out.

The 8 Baeza (7/2 ML) has been a victim of slow starts in his last two races since being trained by Bill Mott or at least it seems so. There will be extra padding for his gate today according to his trainer, and if he can get a better start, he should be flying home the winner.

The 2 Nitrogen (4/1 ML) destroyed a field of fillies and mares last time out in the Ogden Phipps and takes on the boys here today. She appears to be pressuring the favorite who will break inside of her. If I have a concern with her today, she wonders if she is alone on the lead in the stretch. But she still won by 13 lengths. This field though will have a few horses closing and a front runner who is really getting good.

Joe’s Whitney Stakes Pick

I think Nitrogen will be pressuring Magnitude in this race, and I think she takes over the lead. But Sovereignty and Baeza will take advantage of Nitrogen’s wondering ways in the lane. Baeza has the strongest kick and will get the win here today.

I’m calling this race 8-6-2-1 and my play is $20 to win on the 8. Best of luck and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle!