Quills Picks Winners – Saturday 9/12 – Woodbine Races 5 & 7

Woodbine has a huge day of racing this afternoon, and we will take a look at all four of Woodbine’s Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” for this afternoon. All four featured races are on the E.P. Taylor (our outer) turf course today.

We will look at Woodbine Mile (race 9) and the E.P Taylor (race 10) later on, but here we will look at the two juvenile races with berths for the Breeders’ Cup on the line.

First, we will look at the Natalma Stakes for juvenile fillies going one mile. Then we have the Summer Stakes which offers a berth for the Juvenile Turf though we do have a couple of fillies potentially taking on the boys here. We will look at those two juvenile races here.

Woodbine Race 5 – Natalma Stakes (Grade 1)

A field of 11 juvenile fillies are entered in the Natalma Stakes. Three fillies, the 3 Nicki Knows Best (20/1 morning line), 4 Voyager (4/1 ML) and 5 Bounce Back (15/1 ML) are all cross entered into the Summer Stakes, but I have no indication which race they will choose, though I personally think they stay here.

Favored in the Natalma Stakes is the 6 Lamirada (5/2 ML). She won her debut race impressively on the main synthetic track though there was an inside track bias that day. She will probably go for the lead again today in her turf debut and try to put everyone away early.

The 10 Cattrall (12/1 ML) won last month here at Woodbine in her second career start. She went for the lead and never looked back. She may not be as fast out of the gate like Lamirada, but Cattrall does have a race over the E.P. Taylor turf course. Also that outside post may help her if she is able to rate behind the leaders early on in this race.

The 7 Embouteillage (5/1 ML) won her debut race at Saratoga last month rallying from fourth for the win. She could have a perfect trip starting right next to the favorite this afternoon.

The 4 Voyager (4/1 ML), if she runs here this afternoon, is the only filly to win going long so far in this field. She ran well in the Schuylerville on the main track at Saratoga and transitioned nicely to the turf for her maiden win. She is a filly that will love the long distances whether it is turf or dirt, though Justify’s offspring have won on both surfaces.

Joe’s Natalma Stakes Pick

it could very well happen that the favorite just guns for the lead and never looks back in this race. But I think Embouteillage’s debut race was effective as well and should be able to make a move late to get up and win here at Woodbine and earn the Breeders’ Cup berth.

I’m calling this race 7-6-4-10 and my play is $20 to win on the 7.

Woodbine Race 7 – Summer Stakes (Grade 1)

A field of 12 is entered in the Summer Stakes and hopefully you made a note about the three cross entrants in this race.

Favored in the Summer Stakes is the 9 Al Hudaiba (2/1 ML). He comes over from the UK where we finished a closing third in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood. He did not look like he was going to close but suddenly he caught up to the top two late but did not get up to win. The stretch out and an old handicapping angle of racing for the first time in North America and dropping ten or more pounds from the previous race is in play today.

The 8 Sword Salute (8/1 ML) went for the lead and never looked back at Goodwood at the end of July. He will race first time in North America and his jockey will be 12 pounds lighter today. What might be most impressive to me is the fact that he defeated a field of 18 there in the UK last time out, which is always something I look for in handicapping international horses.

The 11 Speaker’s Speech (12/1 ML) lost a heartbreaker in the Soar Free here at Woodbine last month in his debut. He made a huge and wide move to take the lead on the turn but lost by a head. With the outside post, he could sit and make that huge move just like he did in his debut.

The 3 Oscar (6/1 ML) sat right behind the leader in his debut and found an opening along the rail and held off a hard charging foe for the win. He will make the trip north where he actually shortens up 110 yards for this stakes race. Look for him to have a similar trip today.

Joe’s Summer Stakes Pick

We are going to put an old handicapping angle that I have had into play here today as well as one I’ve developed over the last few years. Al Hudaiba looks like a colt who could go gate to wire here, but I also like the combination of my two personal handicapping angles intertwined with Sword Salute. He went for the lead and never looked back over an extremely large field in the UK. I’ll take the change on Sword Salute here this afternoon.

I’m calling this race 8-9-3-11 and my play is $20 to win on the 8. Best of luck and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle!