Quills Picks Winners – Tuesday 9/29 – Presque Isle Downs Race 6

We are going to mix things up this afternoon. We are going to go to Northwest Pennsylvania, not far from the banks of Lake Erie as Presque Isle Downs has an eight-race card on top today. We will look at race six today as seven fillies and mares will go a mile and 70 yards in a starter allowance optional claiming race.

The days are starting to wind down as they have about three more weeks in the season, so let’s take a look at one of their races this afternoon.

Presque Isle Downs Race 6 – Starter Allowance Optional Claiming

Favored in today’s race is the 2 Little Martha (9/5 morning line). She won four races in a row, all of which were here at Presque Isle Downs, and they were all at today’s distance. She was claimed last time out and enters this starter race today. Look for her to sit right off the pace and make her move by the time the field reaches the upper stretch. But she could assume the lead early with no obvious front running speed here.

The 1 Little Miss Munny (4/1 ML) went for the lead last time out and couldn’t last as Little Martha passed her in the stretch. She doesn’t usually go for the lead, but she may assume the lead again today with the lack of obvious speed in this race, leading to a similar setup as three weeks ago when she last ran.

The 5 Don’t Tell Kelly (5/2 ML) had some trouble in her last race here at Presque Isle last month, as she hesitated from the start and was rushed toward the front. She stretches back out to two turns after that six-furlong race last month. She won that optional claiming race in July which was a higher-level race than today’s race. Look for her to be more towards the back and make one big run.

The 7 I’m Blushing (10/1 ML) pressed the pace three weeks ago and tired in that common claiming race from three weeks ago. She could go for the front, but she does have a recent race at the end of July where she closed belatedly to finish third while wide. Where this mare is positioned early may tell where she is late.

Joe’s Pick

This race does look chalky, but I think we can beat the favorite here with Don’t Tell Kelly. She has an excuse from when she ran last, so if she can get out of the gate cleanly, I’m giving her a shot to win this race today.

I’m calling this race 5-2-7-1 and my play is $20 to win on the 5. Best of luck and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle!