Quills Picks Winners – Saturday 11/7 – Belmont Park Races 8 & 9
We continue with the races from Belmont Park and we will take a look at the final two stakes races on the card, the Grade 2 Mother Goose, which runs in November for the first time, and the Dwyer Stakes.
The Dwyer Stakes is next up and it marks the return of the two-year-old champion Ted Noffey who returns today. Nine horses will face him as they go one mile on the main track.
Belmont Park Race 8 – Dwyer Stakes
Of course, Ted Noffey (#6, 8/5 morning line) is favored. He went four for four last year, winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on his way to champion honors. But he suffered an injury in training as he was about to start his three-year-old campaign. His trainer wants a “strong performance”, but how that is defined will be seen by how he runs today.
The 8 Igniter (8/1 ML) had all kinds of problems early in the Pennsylvania Derby at Parx. He was slammed hard at the start and then had to steady shortly thereafter, ruining any shot he may have had. Note the Derby came up very strong this year with The Puma finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and Further Ado winning the Dirt Mile. He looks like he will stalk the pace here this afternoon.
The 9 Sea Strike (2/1 ML) weakened in the Travers at Saratoga in August and returns here this afternoon. He was closer to the pace in his two races going two turns at Saratoga, winning the Curlin Stakes handily. He does face tough foes here, but they are not the top three-year-olds.
The 5 Stop the Car (20/1 ML) appears to be the closer in the race but has not won since last November. He did finish third in the Ellis Park Derby back in August and could a piece of this with the speed that is in this race.
Joe’s Dwyer Pick
I don’t think Ted Noffey is an automatic pick here. But it would not surprise me if he continues where he left off last year. I’ll take a chance with Igniter here today. The PA Derby had a strong field with Further Ado and The Puma, He wants to be closer to the pace and as long as he gets a clean start, he has a great chance here today.
I’m calling this race 8-6-9-5 and my play is $20 to win on the 8.
Belmont Park Race 9 – Mother Goose Stakes (Grade 2)
Our finale this afternoon is the Mother Goose Stakes as a field of 11 three-year-old fillies will go a mile and a sixteenth on the main track.
Favored in the Mother Goose is the 7 Bodacious Bay (5/2 ML). She won the Cotillion at Parx in September and returns here this afternoon. She stalked the pace and drew off to win the Grade 1 race. Look for her to stalk again this afternoon.
The 1 Cognition (9/2 ML) returned from a layoff of over a year to break her maiden in her second career race going gate to wire at Keeneland last month. It will be interesting to see if she goes for the lead here, which I’d expect after a slow start last year in her debut at Saratoga. Don’t be surprised if she takes advantage of her post position and tries to ride the rail for a gate to wire win.
The 2 Answered Prayers (8/1 ML) finished second in the Seneca Overnight Stakes at Churchill Downs in September. She wasn’t far from the lead but got up late for second. She will settle in this race and try to make a big move like she attempted under the Twin Spires.
The 9 Tahlequah (12/1 ML) finished third in the Grade 2 Charles Town Oaks back at the end of August, making a wide bid to get third. A wide move will be more forgiving here today at Belmont which will help today. Look for her to settle and make a move here late today.
Joe’s Mother Goose Pick
Look for Cognition to go for the lead here and get tested. Bodacious Bay will get a perfect spot not for off the early speed and will take over late over Belmont’s long stretch for the win.
I’m calling this race 7-2-1-9 and my play is $20 to win on the 7. Best of luck and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle!
