Quills Picks Winners – Saturday 11/7 – Belmont Park Races 6 & 7
We stay in New York for the our featured races and today we are featuring the four stakes races on the card today, including the return of two-year-old champion Ted Noffey. But we will get to him later on today.
Here we will take a look at races six and seven on a ten-race card. Race six is the Pumpkin Pie Stakes as fillies and pares will sprint seven furlongs on the main track. Then we will head to the turf for the Carle Place Stakes as a field of ten sprint six furlongs on the inner turf. Or so we think.
I say that because it did rain in New York on Friday and it was heavy towards the end of the card. I would not be surprised if this race ends up on the track’s new Tapeta surface because of yesterday’s weather and the fact that this is not a graded stakes race. That field should remain intact despite the potential surface change.
With that, let’s take a look at the first two stakes races on the card.
Belmont Race 6 – Pumpkin Pie Stakes
First up is the Pumpkin Pie Stakes for fillies and mares. Favored is the 4 Senza Parole (3/5 morning line). She finished second in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Stakes here last month. She closed strongly after tipping off the rail but could not get by the winner. Look for her to make a big move late here this afternoon.
The 3 Beauty Reigns (5/2 ML) finished third in that same race but tired after being wide on the turn. She does have a strong closing kick but occasionally disappear in graded stakes race. With this field however, that closing kick should be on display.
The 1 Indy Bay (6/1 ML) comes in from Gulfstream Park where she finished off the board in the Grade 3 Princess Rooney Stakes. She likes to stalk the pace and will try to do so from the rail.
The 2 Amalfi Drive (10/1 ML) last races in the two-turn, six and a half furlong Shine Again Stakes at Timonium in Maryland at the end of August, closing well and finishing fourth in a blanket finish. She actually prefers to be on the lead and returns today after not getting the lead. She may not be there at the end, but if she is, she might steal this on the front end.
Joe’s Pumpkin Pie Pick
Senza Parole is heavily favored and rightfully so. I think that I want to take a chance at trying to beat the favorite here with Indy Bay who may get first run here and comes off a race where she threw in a clunker.
I’m calling this race 1-4-3-2 and my play is $20 to win on the 1.
Belmont Park Race 7 – Carle Place Stakes
Race seven is the Carle Place, and there is a possibility that this race may not run on the turf course. If that is the case, Belmont Park will run this race on their innermost track which is their all weather surface. The Tapeta surface does tend to keep fields intact when they move from turf to synthetic.
Favored in this stakes race is the 4 Doubting Thomas (7/2 ML). He won the Bricks and Mortar Stakes at Belmont here last month closing while wide going longer. He shortens up here and should be closing again here this afternoon. He does have the experience of a race on synthetic surface, finishing second in the Tom Ridge Stakes at Presque Isle Downs in June.
The 7 Two Out Hero (6/1 ML) weakened in the Bricks and Mortar last time out. He previously came close to upsetting the Grade 2 Franklin Simpson field at Kentucky Downs in September. He may be more suited for the turf, but he should bounce back from last month’s clunker.
The 1 Big Destroyer (6/1 ML) closed well despite a belated move in the same race last month. He has shown that he can close on the turf but we will see what he can do if this race is off the turf today.
The 5 Highwaytothemoon (15/1 ML) closed well in the Sophomore Stakes at Woodbine last month on their main synthetic track. He has only run once on the turf, finishing fourth, but that was last year. He will definitely move up with a move to the Tapeta surface.
Joe’s Carle Place Pick
This race is contingent on what surface this race is run. Checking NYRA’s X account, a decision was to be made this morning, If the race stays on the turf, I’ll take Doubting Thomas. If this is on the all weather surface, I’ll swing for the fences with Highwaytothemoon.
If we are on the turf, my play is the 4. On the Tapeta, it’s the 5. But either way, it’s a $20 win wager. Best of luck and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle!
