Pavlovian Primed for Derby Pace Battle After Sharp Santa Anita Drill
ARCADIA, Calif. – In my years around this sport, I’ve learned that a horse’s attitude in the mornings often reveals more than their afternoon performances. Sunday at Santa Anita, Pavlovian sent a clear message about his Kentucky Derby intentions.
“He doesn’t want anyone passing him,” jockey Edwin Maldonado declared after guiding the Doug O’Neill trainee through his final California work before Tuesday’s scheduled departure to Churchill Downs.
The son of Tapit covered six furlongs in 1:15, working in tandem with stablemate Robusta, who was clocked in 1:16. Starting behind his workmate and racing outside, Pavlovian showed his competitive fire, with Maldonado catching five furlongs in 1:01.
For O’Neill and owners Paul and Zillah Reddam, this represents familiar territory. The combination captured Derby glory with I’ll Have Another in 2012 and Nyquist in 2016. Now they’re hoping lightning strikes a third time with a colt who’s shown he relishes a fight.
Pavlovian brings a 2-for-10 record into the Run for the Roses, but his recent form suggests he’s found his best stride at the right time. Maldonado has been aboard for the colt’s last two starts—a nose victory in the Sunland Park Derby at 1 1/16 miles on February 15, followed by a head defeat to Emerging Market in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles on March 21.
The Louisiana Derby effort particularly impressed Maldonado. After setting the pace and feeling pressure throughout, Pavlovian held gamely to finish a length clear of third-place Golden Tempo, another Derby probable.
“He can be up there with the leaders and he likes the pressure,” Maldonado explained. “I’m not worried about going too fast. He got the pressure in the Louisiana Derby. I’m not worried about the distance. He galloped out strongly after the Louisiana Derby.”
For Maldonado, who began his North American career in 2002 and has amassed 1,679 victories through Saturday, the Derby represents a career milestone. The 43-year-old rider came close to the Derby dream last year, finishing third in the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile aboard O’Neill’s Vlahos.
“It feels like an accomplishment,” Maldonado reflected on his pending Derby debut. “I’ve been riding 25 years. I have the opportunity and I’m grateful. I’m very confident, super-confident.”
O’Neill, assessing Sunday’s work, noted that both Pavlovian and Robusta “brought their A-game.” He indicated Robusta, who was second by a head to Derby probable Potente in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes on March 7 before finishing last in the Santa Anita Derby, could target the Preakness Stakes at Laurel on May 16.
Earlier Sunday morning, Intrepido turned in a sharper-than-planned half-mile breeze in :47.20. The Jeff Mullins trainee, fourth in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 4, remains on the Derby bubble, ranking 22nd on the points list as of Sunday.
“It wasn’t what I wanted to have happen,” Mullins admitted. “He went out a bit sharper than I wanted him to.”
Intrepido, who races for Dutch Girl Holdings and Irving Ventures, captured the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes last October but has gone winless in three subsequent starts. His rider, Hector Berrios, will be making his Churchill Downs debut if they draw into the field.
Mullins didn’t sugarcoat his colt’s chances: “We’ll have to step up to the plate.”
With entries set for Saturday and only 20 stalls available, the Derby picture remains fluid. Stark Contrast may pivot to the Grade 1 American Turf Stakes on Derby Day, while Iron Honor could wait for the Preakness. An also-eligible list of up to four horses will be established, with those runners getting in only if withdrawals occur before scratches are taken on May 1.
For Pavlovian, the path is clear: ship to Kentucky, draw a post, and prepare for what could be a contentious early pace scenario. In a Derby that appears wide open, a colt who “doesn’t want anyone passing him” might be exactly what’s needed to navigate the chaos of 20 horses and 1¼ miles.
