Quills Picks Winners – Friday 5/1 – Kentucky Oaks

Happy Friday everyone! It’s Kentucky Oaks Day, and what I consider the annual rite of passage is here. Three-year-old fillies will go a mile and an eighth as they right under the Twin Spires.

Also note that this will be the first time that the Kentucky Oaks will be run in prime time. The lights will be on in Louisville as what is now a field of 13 as of Friday morning are expected to head to the gate shortly after sunset.

We will get away from our usual handicapping here today as each horse will get a blurb here today.

1 Explora (6/1 morning line)

Trained up to the Kentucky Oaks after winning the Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes with a front running score, holding off Counting Stars for the victory. She will be close to the pace or might even be on the lead here today with her post this evening.

2 Zany (4/1 ML)

Finished second in the Grade 1 Ashland last month at Keeneland. She was dominant in her first three races but caught a filly who won with a perfect rail trip. She has the pedigree to go the distance here and has won at this distance, winning the Grade 2 Demoiselle last December.

3 Search Party (30/1 ML)

She ran well at Oaklawn, including winning the Martha Washington Stakes in February. She traded the spotlight filly title with Mark Casse stablemate Counting Stars. This filly looks to be a stalker here today as she may be a few steps behind the rest of the field.

4 Counting Stars (8/1 ML)

Defeated a short field in the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes taking over around the half-mile pole and drawing off to an easy win. She has thrown in two clunkers, including the Martha Washington, but she has bounced back each time looking like a major threat ever since.

5 Meaning (5/1 ML)

She won the Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks last month stalking the pace and making a winning move on the final turn. She could be dangerous with a similar trip this evening.

6 My Miss Mo (20/1 ML)

My Miss Mo was scratched on Monday. Her scratch allowed Nysos into the race off the also eligible list, but she was scratched this morning.

7 Dazzling Dame (30/1 ML)

Speed horse that will try to take this field gate to wire this evening. I’ve said this so many times since the Virginia Oaks and Virginia Derby moved to the main track and became Kentucky Derby and Oaks prep races. I just don’t know what to make about dirt races at Colonial Downs, given the circumference of the track among my mental list of things I have to go through.

8 Bottle of Rouge (15/1)

She was the first filly to scratch from the Kentucky Oaks after scratching on Sunday morning. This allowed Lovely Gray to enter the race.

9 Always a Runner (10/1 ML)

She won the Grade 3 Gazelle last month going today’s distance. She was veering around in the stretch, but she was able to get by a game Pashmina to win. This filly does have the pedigree to enjoy today’s distance and maybe even beyond. If I remember, I think this was the horse that DRF said her debut race at Tampa Bay Downs seemed like a lower Beyer Speed Figure than what some handicappers thought.

10 Prom Queen (8/1 ML)

Won the Gulfstream Park Oaks at the end of March. She was not far off the pace and drew off to win by almost three lengths. She could be the now horse as she has improved with each start in her young career.

11 Percy’s Bar (6/1 ML)

Won the Ashland Stakes convincingly last month on her first race since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She could be on the verge of a monster race this evening with her second race off of a layoff.

12 Bella Ballerina (12/1 ML)

She was scratched yesterday, allowing the final also eligible, Resist, to draw into the race.

13 Pashmina (30/1 ML)

Overcame a troubled trip in the Sunland Park Oaks with a second in the Gazelle. She did seem to tire in that race late but she was fighting to the finish of the race. She has run from off the pace as well, but she might need to gun for the lead again.

14 Brooklyn Blonde (30/1 ML)

Finished second in the Santa Anita Oaks to Meaning. She has improved as the races got longer in California, but she might not be there at the end today.

15 Lovely Grey (30/1 ML)

Drew into the field with Bottle of Rouge’s scratch. Dave Portnoy’s horse taking money very early. Only ran once on dirt but not sure what to make of a five furlong race last summer at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

16 Nycon (50/1 ML)

Drew into the race when My Miss Mo scratched, but she scratched this morning.

17 Resist (30/1 ML)

Drew in with the scratch of Bella Ballerina. Finished third in the Bourbonette Oaks, but she has never run on dirt.

Joe’s Pick

Always a Runner is favored as of 12 noon on Friday. I think she will be there at the end. Prom Queen appears to be a horse that will have a perfect stalking position. Percy’s Bar will have to deal with an outside post and probably not being able to get to the rail.

But I think the play is Counting Stars. I usually do not know what to make with small fields like the Honeybee. But she impressively drew off that day and should be able to get up late for the win. I’m calling this race 4-9-11-10.

My Plays

• $20 to win on the 4
• $1 exacta box 4,9,10,11 ($12 ticket)
• $1 superfecta box 4,9,10, 11 ($24 ticket)
• $5 double 4 (Counting Stars), 9 (Always a Runner) and 11 (Percy’s Bar) w/ 7 (Danon Bourbon, 9 (The Puma) and 15 (Emerging Market) [9 combinations, $45 ticket]

Best of luck everyone, enjoy the weekend, and I’ll see you on Also Eligible for the Derby picks at 10 am ET/7 am PT.