Today is a day that horse racing fans have waited three years for. For the first time in 38 months, Belmont Park is open for racing. A massive reconstruction of the new Belmont Park is nearing completion, and enough work has concluded that racing can commence.
We will see the familiar mile and a half main track, the two turf courses, but we will see a new addition in the new Tapeta course that will be used in the winter and when races are rained off the turf. We have a new grandstand that will not be completed until next spring, but we do have enough of it finished that a limited number of patrons can attend the opening day today.
With opening day we have a main event today that is worthy of a grand reopening. Today’s featured race is race five of a nine-race card, and that race is the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Seven horses are entered in this mile and a quarter race, but we already have two scratches in the race. Banishing and Chunk of Gold were announced as scratched on Tuesday, leaving five horses, including last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, the Japanese horse Forever Young.
Belmont Park Race 5 – Jockey Club Gold Cup (Grade 1)
Forever Young (#7, 3/5 morning line) is the heavy favorite here and will probably be much lower odds as post time approaches. He returns to the United States today after last racing in March in Dubai. There should be no worries about the layoff as these are more of a planned thing than being forced into a layoff. The champion older horse had a nice work at Belmont to prepare here for today’s race.
The 4 Phileas Fogg (4/1 ML) went gate to wire in his last two wins, including the Grade 2 Suburban at Saratoga in July. If he is alone on the lead, he could pull off an upset here today. But he could be pressured early by the heavy favorite here this afternoon.
The 1 Baeza (9/2 ML) has the talent to win this, and truthfully any race he is entered, but had a severe issue with the start of races. His last “good start” was in last year’s Pennsylvania Derby, which was five races ago. I don’t blame the trainer change. There’s a mental block that might be causing this issue. But if he can settle and be ready to go when the gate opens, he should be Forever Young’s main rival in the stretch.
The 2 Stars and Stripes (15/1 ML) won the Birdstone Stakes at Saratoga going a half mile longer. He showed he can run all day, but he’s facing the cream of the crop here today.
The 6 Render Judgment (20/1 ML) like Stars and Stripes is facing the cream of the crop today. He might try to close as well here, but I am thinking that he is nothing more than what I call race filler.
Joe’s Pick
I could just say that you should take Forever Young and acknowledge his greatness and move on to the next race. But I want to take a swing here and make some money today.
Baeza has the strongest kick that can cancel out everything that could happen in what is a tactical race. If you think he gets out of the gate cleanly, which has not been a case for a year now, he can beat Forever Young. I will take a swing at Baeza pulling off the upset in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.
I’m calling this race 1-7-4 and my play is $20 to win on the 1. Welcome back Belmont Park and I will see you in the winner’s circle!
