Quills Picks Winners – Monday 8/17 – Ellis Park Race 6

The meet at Ellis Park is winding down and today I thought I’d take a look at a race from there this afternoon. Our race will be race six as maidens will go six furlongs on the main track.

A field of 16 horses are entered, but up to 12 horses will run in this race. This could be a combination of things like the increased interest in running at Ellis over the last couple of years, or it may be getting one more race in at Ellis before the Kentucky circuit goes to Kentucky Downs and Churchill Downs.

Let’s take a look at this race as we look for a winner today.

Ellis Park Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight

Favored in today’s race is the 12 Moona Lisa (7/2 morning line). She has gunned to the lead in each of her two career races. Last time out at Churchill, she lost the lead at the quarter pole and then weakened badly. If no one gets in from the “also eligible” list, she will be in the far outside gate which could be an issue. But she has the speed to get to the front and get towards the rail.

The 6 Altadena (5/1 ML) finished off the board in the Audubon Oaks here at Ellis Park last week. She has a quick turnaround, but she does return to the maiden ranks here for today’s race. If she returns to the form of her debut race month, she should be closing late.

The 5 Love Divine (9/2 ML) talked the pace last month here at Ellis and dueled in the stretch and lost by a head. That race was her first race in almost a year and ran well off the layoff. She could be sitting right behind the speed here this afternoon.

The 7 Teatonic (6/1 ML) stalked the pace from the inside and gave way in that race at Churchill in June. She has a short layoff here, but last time was her first race in about a year and needed that race.

Joe’s Pick

When you first browse the program for this race, you go down towards the bottom and you see Bob Baffert trains the favorite here. I am trying to beat him here today since this filly tired badly last time out.

I will go with Altadena here. I think that going back to maidens will help her immensely here and will find this field much more to her liking. She should be able to stalk the pace and take over when the favorite starts to falter.

I’m calling this race 6-5-12-7 and my play is $20 to win on the 6. Best of luck and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle!