Quills Picks Winners – Saturday 5/16 – Preakness 151 at Laurel
Things will be looking a little bit different this afternoon. The Preakness shifts from Pimlico to Laurel Park for this year and we have a track today that is larger in circumference than in Baltimore. But a Preakness winner will be crowned shortly after 7 pm tonight, and though we do not have the Kentucky Derby winner here, we have a full field of 14 where we could make some serious money today.
Like I did in the Kentucky Derby, I will give you thoughts on all 14 horses today and then give you my pick for today’s second leg of the Triple Crown.
#1 Taj Mahal (5/1 morning line)
Taj Mahal is three for three lifetime after winning the prep for this race, the Federico Tesio in runaway fashion. He was in the outside post in the Tesio but is on the inside here today. He has a ton of speed and figures to gun for the lead. If he can rate without having a bad start like he did in his debut race at Lauren in February, the locals might be cheering him home.
#2 Ocelli (6/1 ML)
Ocelli finished third in the Kentucky Derby at 70/1 odds closing from the back of the pack. He had the typical trouble in the Derby but still got the setup he needs to win here. He is still a maiden, but speed might set up for him to close late again.
#3 Crupper (30/1 ML)
He comes in from Oaklawn where he earned a spot in the gate after winning the Bath House Row Stakes. He fought hard for the win, but there is other speed in this race.
#4 Robusta (30/1 ML)
He faded on the second turn finishing 14th in the race. Robusta comes back today after two weeks but he is another horse that will try to get to the front.
#5 Talkin (20/1 ML)
Talkin finished third in the Blue Grass last month at Keeneland, about two lengths away from second in Futher Ado’s blowout win. I don’t think he would go for the lead but he seems to not be a closer either.
#6 Chip Honcho (5/1 ML)
He finished off the board in the Louisiana Derby, but his trainer says he should benefit from the limited attendance at Laurel this afternoon. If he can stalk behind the leaders he has a chance, but I am thinking he tries for the lead here.
#7 The Hell We Did (15/1 ML)
This colt ran well in the Lexington finishing second. The winner finished third last week in the Peter Pan. He does have the pedigree on the dad’s side to go long, but his mother was a sprinter for the most part. His chances all depend on where he is when they reach the first turn.
#8 Bull by the Horns (30/1 ML)
This grey or roan colt won the Rushaway at Turfway park on the Tapeta surface but showed nothing in his lone Kentucky Derby prep race in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. With all the top horses aiming for Saratoga, he might get a piece here. But he needs to improve drastically on his speed numbers.
#9 Iron Honor (9/2 ML)
Iron Honor was bumped around some approaching the first turn and was wide throughout in the Wood Memorial. The wide post didn’t help either and he’s somewhat closer to the middle of the gate today. He has the pedigree to run well, but will he be rating behind the leaders or gunning for the lead?
#10 Napoleon Solo (8/1 ML)
He set some fast fractions in the Wood and weakened late. His maiden win was from off the pace last summer, but that was a six-furlong sprint. He has not fared well in two-turn races so far and may not fare well if he guns for the lead here.
#11 Corona de Oro (30/1 ML)
Finished third in the Lexington, but tired late when trying to take that field gate to wire. His last two races, which were both going two turns, were races where he went for the lead. But I think he might be able to rate like he did in a sprint at the Fair Grounds in January.
#12 Incredibolt (5/1 ML)
He finished sixth in the derby and was bumped around in the stretch some. He was still finishing well. Incredibolt might get the set up again this evening and should be running late.
#13 Great White (15/1 ML)
Great White returns after being scratched at the gate in the Kentucky Derby after flipping before the race. Everything is fine apparently as he returns today. He won the Battaglia Memorial in February on the Tapeta at Turfway Park but was far back in the Blue Grass in his first attempt on dirt. He looks like a horse that wants the front, but I don’t think he’s fast enough.
#14 Pretty Boy Miah (15/1 ML)
Won two races in a row at Aqueduct but never went two turns. Last month he won an allowance race going the one-turn mile. He doesn’t look like he can get the mile and three-sixteenths but if he does, it will be on the dam side of the pedigree.
Joe’s Preakness Pick
This race appears to set up nicely for the closers this evening. Or it may be that Taj Mahal may be too fast on a course that he is very familiar with. I think all the speed in this race, I think they will be going very fast, leading to a similar finish as the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago.
We could have a maiden win this race in Ocelli. He closed well at Aqueduct where the fractions were not as fast as the Derby. I think The Hell We Did will sit right behind the speed as will Incredibolt. Great White will be there late as well.
I’m calling this race 2-12-7-13. My plays are a $20 win wager on the 2, and a $1 superfecta box of 2,7,12,13 which will cost $24. Best of luck and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle!
