Quills Picks Winners – Saturday 5/2 – Kentucky Derby

The day has arrived! Unlike Mick Jagger, I will not be sitting in a rose pink Cadillac, but I will be making best on Kentucky Derby Day. This is one of the days that I look forward to every year and like I said yesterday, we do have a rite of passage today as the 20 best horses (barring any very late scratches) will race under the Twin Spires for the roses.

Since this is such a big race, I will do the same thing I did yesterday. I will give thoughts on each of the horses and then give you my plays. We were in the ballpark with our picks, but we are still alive in the Oaks/Derby Double. I have three chances to get a score in that for the first time in a few years.

Let’s get to the horses in the first Triple Crown race of 2026.

1 Renegade (4/1 morning line)

Renegade is favored after a powerful win at the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn five weeks ago. But he draws the rail which is not ideal but the new gate might help him. And then there’s the issues with his hooves right now. I think if he loses, it’s not the hooves or the post. It just may be being unlucky.

2 Albus (30/1 ML)

Shocking winner of the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last month. He has run well going long in his last two races, but the pedigree does not look like it can go today’s distance.

3 Intrepido (50/1 ML)

Finished fourth in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby but was well behind the top two who are also running here today. His best races are on the front end up there are speedier horses today.

4 Litmus Test (50/1 ML)

A Bob Baffert trainee at 50/1? Well, he looks like it. He finished off the board in the Arkansas Derby and has tired in both races this year. He will be gunning for the lead, but I don’t think he will last with the other speed in this race.

5 Right to Party (30/1 ML)

He was scratched and you will see from the article, trainer Kenny McPeek did not agree with the decision. This scratch allowed Robusta to get into the race before the 9 am deadline on Friday.

6 Commandment (6/1 ML)

He won a thrilling Grade 1 Florida Derby in what was a strong Florida road to the Derby. He has won four in a row, including two prep races and a preview race at Gulfstream this year. He looks very dangerous today.

7 Danon Bourbon (20/1 ML)

You will have to dig to find this horse’s races. As we know, the international races are limited on all American programs, no matter which one you use. He got the Japanese invite for the Derby after winning at Nakayama in Japan. Some will toss this horse just because he’s an international horse. Take my advice: don’t!

8 So Happy (15/1 ML)

This Runhappy colt won the Santa Anita Derby last month stalking the pace and taking over. Everyone is going to say Runhappy was a sprinter, but his pedigree does not completely suggest that he is a sprinter. He may not get the distance today but he does look like an eight to nine-furlong horse.

9 The Puma (10/1 ML)

Scratched Saturday morning due to a swollen pastern. If you had The Puma in the Oaks/Derby double (like I did), you get a consolation payout.

10 Wonder Dean (30/1 ML)

Won the UAE Derby in Dubai after a fourth-place finish in Saudi Arabia. Finished atop the Europe/Middle East standings to get an invite. Closed well for the win after Six Speed was on the lead all the way around the track that day five weeks ago.

11 Incredibolt (20/1 ML)

Rode the rail in the stretch to win the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs. He has two wins at Churchill Downs as well including the Grade 3 Street Sense. I admit, I never know what to think about these dirt races from Colonial Downs, but I think he does have the ability to close.

12 Chief Wallabee (8/1 ML)

Finished third in the Florida Derby after a hard closing second in the Fountain of Youth, both at Gulfstream Park. He is bred for these long-distance races. He adds blinkers which isn’t ideal but has progressed nicely in his three races this year.

13 Silent Tactic (20/1 ML)

Silent Tactic was scratched with a foot bruise, allowing Great White to draw into the race.

14 Potente (20/1 ML)

He stalked to win the San Felipe in March, but was on the lead in the Santa Anita Derby, only to be passed by So Happy late in the race. Has shown versatility, but I think he goes for the lead which may not be a good thing today.

15 Emerging Market (15/1 ML)

Only had two races but has been an emerging racehorse. He won the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds with a strong closing kick. Note that the track there at the Fair Grounds is set up similarly to Churchill Downs. He could have that closing kick needed to win today. If he wins, he will be the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby in his third lifetime start since 1883.

16 Pavlovian (30/1 ML)

Already has 10 races under his belt and almost was able to go gate to wire in a fast Louisiana Derby. He has been on the lead in his last two races and figures to be on the lead. The problem is that there is an extremely fast horse to his right.

17 Six Speed (50/1 ML)

Got passed late in the UAE Derby in Dubai five weeks ago by Wonder Dean. He wants the lead and will do whatever he can to get it. The problem is that there is other speed as well which will pressure him.

18 Further Ado (6/1 ML)

Won the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in a romp. Some will say he is a Keeneland horse, but he did run at Churchill Downs after a 20-length romp in October at Keeneland and won. But you figure he would have to bounce, right? He did bounce in the Kentucky Jockey Club in November but still won.

19 Golden Tempo (30/1 ML)

Closed well to finish third in the Louisiana Derby six weeks ago. Does have the ability to close but might need a major meltdown to win.

20 Fulleffort (20/1 ML)

This colt was scratched on Thursday, allowing Ocelli to draw into the race.

21 Great White (50/1 ML)

Finished way back in the Blue Grass last month. He races on the dirt for the second time after that race at Keeneland but probably is in way too deep here.

22 Ocelli (50/1 ML)

Closed well to finish third in the Wood Memorial. He is still a maiden after six tries, and will still be a maiden after this race.

23 Robusta (50/1 ML)

He draws the outside post after a third scratch and figures to be on the lead. He finished last in the Santa Anita Derby. He is much more likely to replicate his Santa Anita Derby performance than the San Felipe performance two races back where he almost stole the San Felipe at huge odds.

24 Corona de Oro (50/1 ML)

Scratched. Did not draw into the field at the deadline.

Joe’s Pick

Danon Bourbon is a dangerous entrant here today. Toss him at your own risk. Because you haven’t seen his races or can’t make heads or tails his past performances does not mean he’s an automatic toss out. You can find his previous two races on YouTube.

Emerging Market may only have two races under his belt, but he is improving and could be the emerging horse, no pun intended.

Commandment should be held in the same regard as The Puma, having won three prep races at Gulfstream Park.

I will add Golden Tempo who should be closing late and should be free of trouble going into the first turn.

So Happy and his connection’s story will tug at your heartstrings. NBC might secretly want him to win, but I don’t think he will be winning. But I think he will be top 6.

I’m tossing Renegade because the post is tough but I think that his finish will have nothing to do with the post or his hoof. I expect Further Ado to bounce.

I’m calling this race 7-15-6-19.

My Plays

• $20 to win on the 7
• $1 exacta box 6 (Commandment), 7 (Danon Bourbon), 8 (So Happy), 15 (Emerging Market) and 19 Golden Tempo for a $20 ticket.
• $1 superfecta box 6,7,15,19 ($24 ticket)

Best of luck everyone and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle!