Quills Picks Winners – Saturday 9/26 – Santa Anita Races 3 & 5
We have a bit of a change this week. We were planning on focusing on the Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” races today at Belmont Park and Santa Anita. Since Belmont Park cancelled and rescheduled their stakes races for Thursday, we pivot and look at all the stakes races at Santa Anita today.
They have five stakes races on the card, including the Goodwood Stakes which is a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In Race”. Here we will take a look at the other “Win and You’re In Race”, the City of Hope Mile in Race 3. Also with this post, we will look at race five, the Eddie D Stakes going down Santa Anita’s hillside turf course.
Let’s take a look at these two races on the card today.
Santa Anita Race 3 – City of Hope Mile Stakes (Grade 2)
Our first race today is a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” race so we get going early on the Santa Anita card. Race three is the City of Hope Mile Stakes going a mile on the grass. A short field of six horses are entered in this race.
Favored is the 6 King of Gosford (8/5 morning line). He is a versatile horse that has won both on the lead and from off the pace. Last time out in the Del Mar Mile, he was not far off the lead, got it in the stretch and held off Detain for the win. Look for this horse to sit right off the lead and make a move late in today’s race.
The 2 El Potente (9/5 ML) could not get the lead in the Del Mar Mile last time out, but he dueled to the finish, finishing third. He will have company once again with Cabo Spirit (#3, 6/1 ML), but this time, El Potente will be on the inside.
The 4 Detain (8/1 ML) closed from the back of the pack and just missed in the Del Mar Mile. He has closed strongly in each of his three races in California since coming here from the UK. He could get a nice set up again this afternoon.
The wild card in this race is the 1 Teao (6/1 ML). You will have to dig to find these videos, but he has won both his races this year, winning in Chile in February and in Peru in April. He has had good works leading to his North American debut. Do not count out this import, because he will be closing as well. But is this distance too short for him?
Joe’s Pick
We have a similar set up here today as we did in the Del Mar Mile. There is speed in El Potente and Cabo Spirit, and I think King of Gosford will stalk right behind those two. Detain should be closing as will the mystery horse Teao. Let’s take the wild card here in a bit of an upset.
I’m calling this race 1-6-5-2 and my play is $20 to win on the 1.
Santa Anita Race 5 – Eddie D Stakes (Grade 2)
We skip ahead to race five and the Eddie D Stakes, which will go down the hillside turf course. Though this does not have the “Win and You’re In” designation, I’m sure that we could see horses in this race potentially running in the Turf Sprint on Halloween.
Favored in the Eddie D is the 6 Sorrento Sky (5/2 ML). He won the Green Flash Handicap last month at Del Mar with a last to first rally. He should have plenty of momentum when they turn to cross over to the main portion of the turf course, but he has not won going down the hill in almost two years.
The 3 Freedom’s Not Free (6/1 ML) tired in the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile last month and returns to the hill today. He won the Grade 3 Daytona Stakes back in June and has not been off the board in five tries on the Santa Anita turf. In these sprint races he has stalked, so don’t be fooled by those lines where he was on the lead. Those were longer races.
The 7 Pure Madness (3/1 ML) is a speedy horse that has won on both turf and dirt. He won an optional claimer on Del Mar’s main track but has run well on the turf at Santa Anita, albeit this will be his first attempt down the hill. The transition to turf should not be an issue and should be setting the fractions early here.
The 8 First Peace (5/1 ML) shortens up after finishing third in an optional claiming race at Del Mar last month. He has run very well down the hill and should be able to display his prowess here again today. I am expecting him to sit right behind the speed here today.
Joe’s Pick
I am not sold on Sorrento Sky here. If he goes to Keeneland, he might have a better shot there than here. I’m not sure if he likes the hill that much. One horse that does is First Peace. I might be overthinking this, but I think with a quirky course like this, familiarity and results are a good combination to have.
I’m calling this race 8-7-6-3 and my play is $20 to win on the 8. Best of luck and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle!
