Quills Picks Winners – Thursday 4/30 – Churchill Downs Race 11
Happy Thurby everyone! At least that’s what they call Thursday before the Kentucky Derby in Louisville and Churchill Downs. The featured races on Thurby today is the Grade 3 Mamzelle Stakes. Three-year-old fillies will sprint five and a half furlongs on the turf this afternoon.
Churchill Downs Race 11 – Mamzelle Stakes (Grade 3)
Favored in today’s featured race is the 5 Cy Fair (5/2 morning line) the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint champion returned three weeks ago at Keeneland and finished third in a thrilling Grade 3 Limestone Stakes. She finished well despite dueling for part of the turn and most of the stretch. I expect her to benefit from that first race in six months today as she returns today in this graded stake.
The 8 Slay the Day (3/1 ML) got by the favorite in the stretch at Keeneland to win the Limestone last time out. She had the advantage that day of being the second race off of a layoff compared to the favorite. This filly appears to be more likely to gun for the lead, but Cy Fair has shown that tendency in her last two races.
The 3 Final Accord (6/1 ML) finished off the board in the in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf on Halloween and Del Mar and returns here this afternoon. It may be a first race since Halloween, but I like the cut back to a sprint here for her return. She is two for two sprinting on the grass.
The 6 Hen Party (9/2 ML) is an interesting play today. She comes in after a win in the Serena’s Song at Turfway Park last month and just missed in February in an optional claimer. Everyone is going to look at the lone attempt on the grass at Horseshoe Indy and say she’s not a turf horse. She is worth a look with all the problems she had being fractious in the gate which led to her not coming out of the gate at all.
Joe’s Pick
I think Cy Fair is the best in the field, but I kept coming back to Hen Party here. Thankfully we can see why in video and in the program why Hen Party did not do well in her turf bow. I’m willing to give her another opportunity this afternoon. I think she will be flying late to get by Cy Fair and Slay the Day for the win.
I’m calling this race 6-5-8-3 and my play is $20 to win on the 6. Best of luck and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle!
