Quills Picks Winners – Aqueduct Races 11 & 12
The New York Road to the Oaks and Derby ends for the final time at Aqueduct before the track closes in June. Today we have three-year-old fillies going a mile and an eighth in the Gazelle Stakes, while the Wood Memorial will go that same distance for the final Kentucky Derby points.
Aqueduct Race 11 – Gazelle Stakes (Grade 3)
A field of nine is entered in the Gazelle and favored in this Grade 3 race is the 1 Paradise (5/2 morning line). She won the Busher five weeks ago while stalking the pace. She was not that far off the pace that day and should be near the front here. The distance should not be an issue here today as she takes on graded stakes company for the first time today.
The 6 Pashmina (7/2 ML) finished third in the Sunland Park Oaks in mid-February and might have lost a chance at second with Bottle of Rouge swerving around in deep stretch. Bottle of Rouge ended up winning next time out at Colonial Downs which may validate Pashmina’s effort. Look for her to be moving late in this race.
The 3 Nycon (6/1 ML) scratched at Keeneland yesterday to run here in the Gazelle today. She finished second to Paradise in the Busher. She is more of a closer and might end up closing here this afternoon.
The 4 Two Bits (9/2 ML) won the Ruthless Stakes here two months ago with a stalking trip and dueling in the stretch. I would not be worried about the distance though her lone two turn race at Delaware Park was not great.
Joe’s Gazelle Stakes Pick
I think Pashmina ran a huge race last time out and did get interfered with by the winner but the winner was not disqualified. The distance helps here today and I think she will get up late for the win over the favorite.
I’m calling this race 6-1-3-4 and my play is $20 to win on the 6.
Aqueduct Race 12 – Wood Memorial (Grade 2)
A field of 13 horses is entered in the Wood Memorial, which runs for the final time at Aqueduct Racetrack. But up to 12 horses will run as Ottinho will run in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Favored is the 13 Iron Honor (5/2 ML). He has the misfortune of drawing to the extreme outside though he will move inside one gate position with the scratch of Ottinho. He is two for two after winning the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes five weeks ago. He should be near the pace here today, but that first turn is going to come up quicky today.
The 1 Napoleon Solo (7/2 ML) might be on the lead here, but he did not do that in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream five weeks ago. He did have an awkward start and a wide trip. He is fast, but will they try to rate the horse since this is the longest race that he has run in his career?
The 9 Bravaro (8/1 ML) was steadied early in the Fountain of Youth but still finished fourth, albeit 11 lengths back. The top two horses ran well in the Florida Derby so that might help his chances here. He likes to stalk the pace and could do that here today.
The 12 Buetane (8/1 ML) finished fourth in the Virginia Derby three weeks ago at Colonial Downs. He’s already gone the nine-furlong distance, but I never know what to make about the races on the main track at Colonial. He goes back to two turns today and will try to give Bob Baffert an entrant in the Derby.
Joe’s Wood Memorial Pick
If Iron Honor can get to the lead here and get close to the rail by the time they get to the first turn, he is going to be tough to beat. I think Napoleon Solo and Bravaro will be right behind him if things work out that way. If they do, I think Bravaro bounces back from his Fountain of Youth and gets the win here today.
I’m calling this race 9-1-13-12 and my play is $20 to win on the 9. Best of luck and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle!
