Quills Picks Winners – Saturday 4/4 – Keeneland Race 11 (Blue Grass S.)
With the Ashland running yesterday, we are focusing on one singular race here at Keeneland this afternoon. The Road to the Derby ends today for the most part, though there is a “last chance” race next weekend. Today is Blue Grass Day and we have nine horses entered in the final 100-point race to the winner in Kentucky.
We do have some changes already leading up to today. Class President has been scratched from this race. Ocelli will be scratched as he will run at Aqueduct today. It appears we will have seven horses going forward this afternoon in the Grade 1 Blue Grass.
Keeneland Race 11 – Blue Grass Stakes (Grade 1)
Favored in the Blue Grass is the 6 Further Ado (8/5 morning line). He finished second to The Puma in the Tampa Bay Derby. With The Puma barely losing the Florida Derby, that validates Further Ado’s performance in Tampa. Look for him to be close to the pace and make a move on the turn.
The 4 Reagan’s Honor (5/2 ML) won an allowance at the Fair Grounds going gate to wire back in mid-February. He is the speed of this race and could be a gate to wire candidate here this afternoon. But he is taking a huge step in class here.
The 5 Creole Chrome (8/1 ML) will face open company for the first time after facing Louisiana bred horses in his first four tries. In his last start, he went gate to wire going much slower fractions at the end of February than Reagan’s Honor did. He has a major step forward here but can he rate next to or right behind the horse next to him.
The 1 Talkin (10/1 ML) finished off the board in the Tampa Bay Derby but showed interest all the way too the finish. A couple of those horses closed strongly outside of him on the turn and got the jump. But don’t be surprised if you see him running late here today.
Joe’s Blue Grass Pick
The scratch of Class President makes things a little bit easier here for Reagan’s Honor. I don’t think Creole Chrome will be on the lead but Talkin may be, but has not been on the lead. That Tampa race was his first in three months so he might be sitting on a big one.
As much as Further Ado could just take over on the turn and win, I still think Reagan’s Honor will go gate to wire here in the Blue Grass. I’m calling this race 4-6-1-5 and my play is $20 to win on the 4. Best of luck and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle!
