Quills Picks Winners – Saturday 6/27 – Churchill Downs Race 11
Today is the race that we have anticipated for in the older division since a few days after the Oaklawn Handicap. The Stephen Foster today is going to be a monster race with plenty of names in the field, but there is one thing that may dampen our spirits, no pun intended, and that is the rain.
It has rained in Louisville pretty much since Thursday and expect a wet track all day. I was hoping to do a bunch of races, but with the rain, I felt it was best to focus on this race and not include the turf stakes that surround this race. Nonetheless, we have a great race despite what should be a sloppy track. But we will still look at this Grade 1 race this afternoon.
Churchill Downs Race 11 – Stephen Foster Stakes (Grade 1)
Favored in the Stephen Foster is the 2025 Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty (6/5 morning line). He went for the lead in the Oaklawn Handicap and was caught late by White Abarrio. I don’t see this colt going for the lead today with speed on the far outside and along the rail. This is his second race of the year which means he could be sitting on a big race. I also couldn’t call this a layoff either because the connections of these top horses pick and choose their races more and more now.
The 2 White Abarrio (3/1 ML) went for the lead in the Oaklawn Handicap, dropped back when Journalism was pressuring the 2025 Derby winner and then circled wide to win. He doesn’t need to go for the lead and he shouldn’t be going today. A stalking trip, which is usually his modus operandi, would give him the best chance.
The 1 Willy D’s (20/1 ML) is a horse that will be going to the front here. He went to the lead and never looked back in his win in the Lake Ouachita at Oaklawn last month. He has a tough task here today and has never hit the board in four tries on off tracks. Though he is cross entered at Lone Star Park, he is running here. But with the wet track, should he have gone to Texas?
The 5 Magnitude (7/2 ML) is a horse that likes to be forwardly placed. He won the Dubai World Cup in March going gate to wire. But he has pressed the leaders in the Razorback Handicap at Oaklawn in February and the Clark here at Churchill last November. It is possible that his performance in the Pennsylvania Derby last year might have gave him the confidence that he doesn’t need to be the horse on the lead.
The 4 Baeza is the stone cold closer of the group. He closed well to finish third in the Alysheba despite a horrifically slow start which cost him. The short field might hurt him, but he does appear to have the strongest closing kick in the quintet.
Saffie Joseph announced earlier in the week that Forged Steel and Navajo Warrior would both be scratched.
Joe’s Pick
These short field races are the ones that I hate handicapping the most. So many weird things happen in races like this that in most cases, the most astute handicapper looks like a fool.
I see a speed duel with Willy D’s and Magnitude. The only real question with Magnitude is how much that trip to Dubai took out of him. Even in that Dubai race, Magnitude did appear to struggle some at the end but held on for the win.
White Abarrio ran his best race at Oaklawn last time out. I think Sovereignty will get revenge on the Oaklawn Handicap winner, but this sets up for Baeza to close strongly after the trouble he had last month and will get up late for the win.
I’m calling this race 4-3-2-5 and my play is $20 to win on the 4. Best of luck and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle!
