Quills Picks Winners – Saturday 7/4 – Saratoga Races 8 & 9
We continue with the stakes races at Saratoga and we will look at the Grade 2 Suburban and the Grade 1 Belmont Derby. The Suburban is a mile and a quarter mile race for older horses, while the Belmont Derby Invitational is a mile and an eighth race on the turf.
Saratoga Race 8 – Suburban Stakes (Grade 1)
A field of 11 older horses in this 10-furlong race. Favored is the 7 Antiquarian (3/1 morning line. He finished fourth in the Met Mile last month. He likes to be closer to the pace and that could be the case this afternoon. Look for him to improve over that race last month and has run well at this distance here at Saratoga.
The 8 Hit Show (5/1 ML) finished third in the Grade 3 Blame Stakes after having all kinds of traffic trouble on the turn and in the stretch. This is his second race after venturing to Dubai and has shown he rans bust in his second race back in America after that trip. Also, if he doesn’t have the issues he had at Churchill, he could win this.
The 4 Parchment Party (8/1 ML) is an interesting entry in this race. He is a marathon horse that has won four straight on the main track, all of which were at a mile and a half or longer. The connections are using this race as a prep for the Birdstone Stakes next month, but can he win this race today?
The 9 Stars and Stripes (6/1 ML) would be a fitting winner today on this 4th of July. He races for the first time in about 10 weeks after winning the Grade 3 Ben Ali at Keeneland with a wide move. He’s won two races in a row and will add some additional ground here which would not hurt his changes.
Joe’s Suburban Stakes Pick
Antiquarian will be tough in this race, but he does have speed to contend with here this afternoon. I could just take Stars and Stripes since it’s the holiday, but I will take Hit Show here. Not only does he have the same script as last year after racing in Dubai albeit more frequent races, but he also had all kinds of problems in the stretch last time out. A cleaner trip will help him get up late here in the Suburban.
I’m calling this race 8-9-7-4 and my play is $20 to win on the 8.
Saratoga Race 9 – Belmont Derby Invitational (Grade 1)
The main event at Saratoga is the Belmont Derby Invitational and a field of ten three-year-olds go a mile and an eighth on the Mellon turf course.
Favored in this Grade 1 race is the 8 West End Kid (3/1 ML). He won the Grade 3 Pennine Ridge after pressuring a longshot on the lead and slowly drew off late for the win. He has won three in a row, and two of them were pressing the early leader. Look for a similar trip this afternoon.
The 6 Pacific Avenue (6/1 ML) finished third in the Irish 2000 Guineas at The Curragh at the end of May, getting third in the final strides. He has hit the board in all four tries this year but has not won yet. But he did show a good performance in a tough race in Ireland.
The 9 Title Role (5/1 ML) won the German 2000 Guineas about five weeks ago with a rally from mid-park for the win. He likes the mile distance but will have to go another furlong here this afternoon. He should have the opportunity to settle this afternoon and make that move here today.
The 3 Remember Mamba (7/2 ML) was near the back of the pack and was rolling late in the Grade 1 American Turf at Churchill on Kentucky Derby Day. But he could not get to the winner. He likes to be near the back and make a huge run. Look for him to be flying late in this race.
Joe’s Belmont Derby Pick
I will say that when you have these international horses, don’t completely throw them out. You have to do your due diligence and start video handicapping since the information is very limited in most programs.
Do not toss Pacific Avenue or Title Role, but I like the latter better. But both will not be able to hold off Remember Mamba late who will get up late for the win.
I’m calling this race 3-9-8-6 and my play is $20 to win on the 3. Best of luck and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle!
