Quills Picks Winners – Saturday 9/5 – Kentucky Downs Races 6-8
It’s a huge day of racing at Kentucky Downs and we will take a look at the three biggest races on the card. The European-style grass only track has two Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” races on tap today in the Grade 2 Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint (race 6) and Grade 2 Kentucky Downs Turf Cup (race 7). We will also take a look at the Grade 2 Nashville Derby as well which runs as race 8.
There are all kinds of quirks with this track. First as a European-style track, you will see that there are undulations all around the turf course and even a slight right turn before the sweeping left turn on the final turn where you will see Tennessee in the background.
Also, note that Kentucky Downs announced before the meet that their win place and show minimums were raised to $5 compared to the standard $2 wager. There will be some issues with where you get your results information. If you get it directly off of the Kentucky Downs feed, you will get the prices in a $5 ticket payoff. Other sites will give you the $2 payout. But don’t worry, you will be paid accordingly, and probably handsomely, if your horses win there today or the rest of the meet, which runs until Thursday.
Let’s dive into these three races and see if we can make some money here this afternoon.
Kentucky Downs Race 6 – Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint (Grade 2)
A field of 14 is entered in the Turf Sprint with up to 12 horses running in this six-furlong sprint. Favored is the 1 Troubleshooting (3/1 ML). He draws the rail here for this race after closing late to get third despite getting bumped late in the Turf Sprint at Ellis Park last month. He will be making his move late today and may get a rail run here.
The 7 Usually Wrong (12/1 ML) won the Grand Prairie Turf Sprint at Lone Star Park at the end of June, closing while tipping wide for the win. The turn will not be an issue because it is a wide turn, so if he runs from the off the pace again he can close today.
The 10 My Boy Prince (9/2 ML) draws a wide post but can settle and wait to make that big move. He closed to win the Van Clief at Colonial Downs after returning to sprinting. This gelding has been extremely effective on the grass sprinting and should be making a move late here today.
The 11 John the Beer Man (4/1 ML) is the speed of the speed here and went gate to wire in winning the Grade 2 Troy Stakes at Saratoga. There does not appear to be many horses that will go for the front, and that turn is probably one of the most forgiving turns in the United States.
Joe’s Turf Sprint Pick
One thing we will see in these three races is that you can make an argument for quite a few horses in each of these races. I will take My Boy Prince here as I think he should be able to close, whether or not John the Beer Man is pestered on the lead or not. The favorite Troubleshooting will he closing as well but My Boy Prince should have the wider but clearer path to victory.
I’m calling this race 10-1-11-7 and my play is $20 to win on the 10.
Kentucky Downs Race 7 – Kentucky Downs Turf Cup (Grade 2)
A field of 10 horses are entered in the Kentucky Downs Turf Cup going a mile and a half. Favored is the 7 Burnham Square (2/1 ML). he closed from the back of the back to get up to win the Arlington Million at Colonial Downs last month. He returns to the scene where he announced that he can run on the turf as well as the main track. This gelding comes in on a four-race win streak, including two of those races at today’s distance.
The 1 Tiffany (9/2 ML) closed strongly last time out in Germany to win a Group 1 race last month and makes the trek to the United States for this race. She defeated the boys last time out and looks to do the same again today. This six-year-old mare fits in nicely with the field here today.
The 6 Ethical Diamond (3/1 ML) closed strongly to win a Group 3 race in Ireland last month. He won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf at Del Mar with a strong closing kick and will look to use it again today to get his trip to Keeneland this year.
The 3 Dresden Row (12/1 ML) closed well in the Arlington Million and missed by half a length when finishing third. Look for him to be moving late here today though this will be his first attempt at 12 furlongs.
Joe’s Pick
Tiffany has faced the boys on numerous occasions and should be able to handle this group today. Look for her to get up late with a good trip to get up late for the win and the berth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.
I’m calling this race 1-7-6-3 and my play is $20 to win on the 1.
Kentucky Downs Race 8 – Nashville Derby (Grade 2)
We have a field of 12 horses entered in the Nashville Derby here this afternoon as the three-year-olds will go a mile and three-sixteenths. These horses will not get an invite to a Breeders’ Cup race, but they will be running for a $3 million dollar purse today.
Favored in the Nashville Derby is the 6 Causeway (5/2 ML). He finished last in France last month after going for the lead. He appears to be a horse that wants to stalk right behind the pace and make a strong move turning for home.
The 3 Glacius (4/1 ML) went gate to wire in winning the Saratoga Derby last month in his American debut. This appears to be a change of tactics from when he was running in the UK earlier this summer where he would settle towards the rear of the pack.
The 9 Gostam (6/1 ML) did not fire in his last two races in the German Derby and French Derby but did win his first four races of his career. He may get a bit of a break here in America for this race. He figures to make his move on the final turn today.
The 2 Royal Guard (8/1 ML) is probably the American based horse with the best chance here today. Obviously, he is going into the deep waters here today, but he has won two races in a row, including an allowance race last time out at Ellis Park. He will try to stalk behind the leaders and make a move here late today.
Joe’s Nashville Derby Pick
I am wondering if the heat could be an issue here today with the European horses in this race. But I imagine that these horses have acclimated themselves to the summer heat in the central part of the country by now.
Gostam got a freshening after racing in Germany and should be able to handle the Kentucky Downs course. The distance won’t be the issue here today as he gets up to win the Nashville Derby. I’m calling this race 9-3-6-2 and my play is $20 to win on the 9. Best of luck and I’ll see you in the winner’s circle!
